For Global Markets, Next Test Is Whether Virus Rates Rise Again

Sign up here for our daily coronavirus newsletter on what you need to know, and subscribe to our Covid-19 podcast for the latest news and analysis. Prepare for a risk rally as the new week gets underway. After that, you may as well flip a coin. The very fact that U.S. markets ended last week […]

Bear Market Signals Over 80% Chance of Recession Hitting U.S.

You can search for years and get nowhere, examining stock gyrations for clues about economic growth. But when U.S. benchmarks slide into a bear market, that’s a different story. Thirteen times the S&P 500 has completed the requisite 20% plunge in the last 93 years. In just two of those episodes did the American economy […]

Fastest-Ever Bear Market Opens Book on Century of Bottom Fishing

The bull market is over and with no sign of a bottom forming, what are the chances this sell-off turns into something really epic? Going strictly by history, the odds are not overwhelming, though the unique speed of this rout is reason for concern. Twenty times over the last 120 years has the Dow Jones […]

$50 Trillion in Question as U.S. Treasury Liquidity Dries Up

Coronavirus-induced market mayhem has pushed so much liquidity out of U.S. Treasuries that the true value of more than $50 trillion in assets around the globe is in doubt. Yields in the world’s largest debt market have been on a mind-bending, three-week roller-coaster ride. At one point, the entire U.S. yield curve was below 1% […]

Market Stress Building at the Fastest Pace Since Lehman

Even before today, financial conditions were tightening at the fastest pace since the 2008 crisis. Markets buffeted by coronavirus fears were thrown into tumult Monday by the potential of a full-blown oil-price war. The next pain point to watch is in credit, from frozen primary markets to potential blow-ups in leveraged companies. And it’s all […]

Breakneck Speed of Sell-Off Puts Longest Bull Market in Jeopardy

In this article In terms of sentiment shifts, few episodes compare with what’s happening in U.S. stocks now. With each lurch, the longest-ever bull market is coming closer to an end. Investors who three weeks ago were doubling down on the rally’s longevity are being forced to unwind bets with a fury that is rarely […]