Goldman Sachs predicts GDP to shrink more than expected but sees economy back on track in September

Secretary Eugene Scalia on job creation surge amid spike in coronavirus cases

Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia, White House coronavirus task force member, joins ‘Fox News Sunday’ for an exclusive interview.

U.S. GDP will shrink more than originally expected but the nation's economy will be back on track in September, Goldman Sachs economists predict.

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A "pause" in consumer spending in July and August will limit a third-quarter rebound, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote, according to Wall Street Journal reporter Michael S. Derby.

However, Goldman Sachs also upgraded 2021 numbers, partly because "prospects for an earlier vaccine have improved recently," according to Derby. The economists "expect the US economy to get back on track in September," he said.

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Goldman Sachs expects U.S. unemployment to fall to 9 percent by the end of 2020 compared to a previous estimate of 9.5 percent, Bloomberg reported.

Bartender Lindsay Pacepours a beer for a customer at Shade Bar NYC, June 22, 2020, in New York. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

The estimates come after President Trump said on Thursday that the U.S. is almost back to pre-pandemic levels "from the standpoint of the stock market."

Trump pointed to a record surge in retail sales and the stock market's biggest rally ever that hit 50 days in June.

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"In a pandemic, we're almost even with where we were before the pandemic started, and nobody would have said that was possible," he said.

However, the unemployment rate is still in the double digits as coronavirus jobless claims now top 48 million.

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