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US recession odds rise to 100% as inflation squeezes the economy
Bloomberg economic model warns of coming recession
‘Kennedy’ panelists Inez Stepman, Jessica Tarlov and Scott Horton discuss a Bloomberg economic model predicting a 100% chance of recession within the next twelve months.
There is almost near certainty that the U.S. economy will enter a recession within the next year, according to a new statistical analysis from Bloomberg Economics.
The probability modeling forecasts a 100% chance of the economy hitting a downturn by October 2023. That is up from 65% for the same period of time in the previous update of the model.
The forecast will likely be unwelcome news for President Biden, who has repeatedly maintained that the U.S. will avoid a recession and that any downturn will be "very slight" as he seeks to assuage voter fears about the state of the economy ahead of the pivotal midterm elections.
"I don’t think there will be a recession. If it is, it’ll be a very slight recession," the president said last week during an interview on CNN. "That is, we’ll move down slightly."
INFLATION SURGED MORE THAN EXPECTED IN SEPTEMBER AS PRICES REMAIN PAINFULLY HIGH