US economic recovery is 'V-interrupted' and could slow after fiscal stimulus boost fades, a JPMorgan chief strategist says

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  • US economic recovery is currently “V-interrupted” and could slow down again in the fourth-quarter after the effects of fiscal stimulus dwindle, JPMorgan Asset Management’s David Kelly told CNBC.
  • “We have seen what looks like a V-shaped recovery, but it’s really V-interrupted – it’s half of V,” Kelly, the chief global strategist, said on Thursday.
  • Kelly explained that the next round of stimulus would only be a “steroid” form of recovery as economic growth would slow down again after the boost. 
  • He said the US would have to rely on immigration to deal with the COVID-related debt buildup as large numbers of people begin to retire and the pandemic cost thousands their lives.
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Economic recovery in the US is “V-interrupted” and could slow in the fourth-quarter even after a fiscal stimulus boost, David Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management’s chief global strategist told CNBC on Thursday.

“We have seen what looks like a V-shaped recovery, but it’s really V-interrupted – it’s half of V,” Kelly said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” 

A V-shaped recovery is marked by a rapid and sustained improvement in the health of an economy following am equally sharp decline, suggesting that a period of recession is over. 

But Kelly said any further fiscal stimulus would only be a “steroid kind of recovery” as its effects would subside in the fourth-quarter.

“It looks like an economic recovery, but it’s really sort of a steroid kind of recovery. As the steroid of fiscal stimulus is removed, the economy is going to grow more slowly…it’s going to grow much more slowly in the fourth quarter than it did in the third,” he said.

Even though the US labor market has begun to show signs of slow recovery, Kelly said it would be a slow crawl until those industries that were worst hit by the pandemic can fully return to normal.

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The number of citizens filing for employment for the first time rose to 898,000 in the week ending October 10, above the median economist estimate of 825,000, meaning many are still likely to endure tougher economic conditions in the near-term.

Kelly said the US would need immigration to help grow out of COVID-related debt, as the current working population is retiring in large numbers and the pandemic has killed over 200,000 already.

“You need to deal with the pandemic to have a healthy recovery, it’s as simple as that,” he said.

Kelly believes the next round of stimulus, which will be a big one, will only come after the November election. 

“I think we’re going to get stimulus anyway. I think people are obsessed with the issue of, do we get stimulus in the next two weeks,” he said. “What’s been going on between the White House and the House Democrats are all to do with politics. After the elections, I think there will be a stimulus package.”

“And in fact, I think, if anything, there’ll be too much stimulus.”

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