A new long-term forecast predicts a significant increase in Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. by the new year.
Under the latest projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, Covid-19 deaths could rise to 410,451 by the end of 2020. In a worst-case scenario, there could be 620,029 fatalities, according to the estimates.
The difference between the projected and worst-case scenarios comes down to how diligent authorities are in mandating masks and social distancing, according to the report.
Efforts to model the spread of the virus, and how many people it will kill, are highly subjective and can swing widely based on what assumptions go into the math. At times, projections have been significantly off. The further out a model looks, the wider the range of estimates can be.
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