Economy may not be seeing the growth numbers it needs in July to climb out of ‘deep hole,’ JPMorgan chief US economist says

Bloomberg TV

  • Chief US economist at JPMorgan said the economy is not seeing the rapid rates of growth required to exit the “deep hole” it entered this spring.
  • Michael Feroli pointed to slowed July spending and an increase in unemployment as indicators of stalling growth.
  • The economist called the second quarter GDP results released Thursday “shocking, but not surprising.”
  • Read more on Business Insider.

Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan, told Bloomberg on Thursday that the economy is not seeing the rapid rates of growth required to get out of the “deep hole” it fell into in March and April. 

The economist said the rebound and recovery in spending in July slowed relative to the pace of June. While he said it looks like July spending is going to be up relative to June, he added, “you have to remember in May and June you had really big rebounds and that appears to be petering out a little here, in July.” 

Feroli said that jobless claims provide a “high frequency look at the economy,” and pointed to this week’s second straight rise in unemployment as another sign of a slowing pace of recovery in July. 

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The economist called the second quarter 32.9% decline in GDP “shocking, but not surprising.” He said that growth won’t be getting back above the levels seen in the fourth quarter last year, even through the end of next year.

“The level of GDP is probably going to be at the end of next year 5% below what we thought it was going to be at the end of last year,” he said. “We do believe there is some permanent damage to the economy here.” 

Feroli said that getting to unemployment levels below 5% will take “quite some time.”

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