Democrats projected to retain their House majority but lose key seats to Republicans

  • Decision Desk HQ has projected Democrats to retain control of the House of Representatives after the 2020 election.
  • The Democrats have failed, however, to protect some of their most vulnerable representatives and to expand their control of the House.
  • As of Monday morning, Democrats had lost a net of seven seats to Republicans. 
  • Before the election, many election analysts expected Democrats to easily maintain and expand their majority in the House by anywhere from five to 15 seats based on polling and fundraising data.
  • Republicans look poised to maintain control of the Senate.
  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

Democrats will continue to control the House of Representatives after the 2020 election, according to Decision Desk HQ.

Ten races remain to be called, but DDHQ on November 9 projected the Democrats to win the 218 seats needed for a House majority.

The Democrats won the House despite falling short of their aim to expand their control of the chamber and losing key seats to Republicans. As of Monday morning, they had lost seven seats on net.

Democrats also won back the White House, with DDHQ on November 6 projecting Joe Biden as the winner of the presidential election. Republicans still have a good chance of maintaining control of the Senate, which could cause legislative gridlock.

In the 2018 midterms, Democrats flipped 40 seats in the House and won back the chamber in a historic election — a repudiation of both President Donald Trump and the unified Republican government he presided over for nearly two years.

House Democrats' top goal in the 2020 cycle was to ensure many of their most vulnerable members who had won back the most difficult seats were reelected. Republicans posted a remarkably strong showing, however, contrary to what many district-level polls and election forecasts indicated. 

The House currently consists of 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, one Libertarian (Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan, who is retiring), and five vacancies. All 435 seats in the House were up for election this fall.


Numerous freshman Democrats lost reelection 

The vulnerable first-term Democrats who Decision Desk HQ projects to lose reelection are Reps. Gil Cisneros and Harley Rouda of California, Reps. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Donna Shalala of Florida, Rep. Abby Finkenauer of Iowa, Rep. Xochitl Torres Small of New Mexico, Rep. Max Rose of New York, and Rep. Kendra Horn of Oklahoma, and Rep. Joe Cunningham of South Carolina.

Rep. Collin Peterson, a long-serving Democratic representative in a Minnesota district that Trump won by 30 points, also lost reelection.

Some House Democrats who flipped Republican suburban and exurban seats in 2018 did win reelection, however, including Rep. Lucy McBath of Georgia, Rep. Katie Porter of California, Reps. Elaine Luria, Abigail Spanberger, and Jennifer Wexton of Virginia, and Rep. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey.

Democrats also fell short on many offensive targets 

House Democrats set out on an ambitious agenda to flip many Republican-controlled seats, particularly in Texas and in many suburban districts around the country.

But Democrats have failed, so far, to flip a single GOP-held seat other than Georgia's 7th Congressional District, located in the Atlanta suurbs, and two North Carolina seats that they were virtually guaranteed to flip because of court-ordered redistricting, according to DDHQ projections. 

Democrats will not pick up competitive US House seats in Texas' 2nd, 3rd, 10th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, or 24th congressional districts, DDHQ projected.

While Biden is projected to carry Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District's sole Electoral College vote, the Democratic candidate Kara Eastman failed in her second bid to unseat the district's congressional representative, Don Bacon, in this Omaha-based seat.

Also in the Midwest, GOP Rep. Ann Wagner won reelection in her district located in suburban St. Louis, over the Democratic candidate Jill Schupp. The Republican Victoria Spartz defeated the Democrat Christina Hale in the open race for Indiana's 5th District, a wealthy seat in suburban Indianapolis that Democrats saw as a possible pickup opportunity.

In Michigan, the Republican Peter Meijer defeated the Democrat Hillary Scholten to succeed the retiring Rep. Justin Amash. And GOP Rep. Steve Chabot held off a challenge from the Democrat Kate Schroder in Ohio's 1st Congressional District, located in the Cincinnati area.

An incoming class of history-makers 

Several of the newly elected state representatives are making history. 

The Republican Madison Cawthorn, 25, who beat the Democrat Moe Davis to represent North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, will become the youngest member of Congress in modern history.

The Democrat Cori Bush is set to become the first Black congresswoman from Missouri after winning in the state's 1st Congressional District.

The Democrats Mondaire Jones and Ritchie Torres will also be the first openly gay Black men to serve in Congress, after winning in New York's 17th and 15th districts respectively.

And nine out of the ten Republicans who have so far unseated incumbent Democrats (Michelle Steel and Young Kim of California, Maria Salazar of Florida, Ashley Hinson of Iowa, Nicole Malliotakis of New York, Stephanie Bice of Oklahoma, Michelle Fischbach of Minnesota, Yvette Herrell of New Mexico, and Nancy Mace of South Carolina) are women — wins that will drastically expand the representation of women and especially of women of color in the House Republican caucus.

Currently, there are just 13 voting female Republican representatives in the House and 11 female Republican incumbents who ran for reelection in 2020.

'The squad' coasts to reelection

Three high-profile Democratic members of "the squad" in the House of Representatives held their seats in a comfortable fashion.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will continue to represent New York's 14th District, defeating the Republican John Cummings by a wide margin, while Rep. Ilhan Omar also ran well ahead of the Republican Lacy Johnson in the race to represent Minnesota's 5th District.

Rep. Rashida Tlaib also defeated her Republican challenger, David Dudenhoefer, and will continue to represent Michigan's 13th Congressional District.

Insider's guides and live results for the key US House seats up for election in 2020


  • AK-AL: Republican Don Young wins reelection in Alaska's At-Large Congressional District


  • AZ-01: Democratic incumbent Tom O'Halleran maintains control of Arizona's 1st Congressional District 
  • AZ-02: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick defends her seat against Republican Brandon Martin in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District
  • AZ-06: Republican incumbent Rep. David Schweikert keeps Arizona's 6th Congressional District


  • AR-02: GOP Rep. French Hill holds his seat in Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District against Democrat Joyce Elliot


  • CA-04: GOP Rep. Tom McClintock has won reelection in California's 4th Congressional District after defeating Democratic challenger Brynne Kennedy.
  • CA-10: First-term Democratic Rep. Josh Harder defends his seat in California's 10th Congressional District
  • CA-21: Incumbent T.J. Cox and David Valadao square up for a rematch in California's 21st Congressional District
  • CA-22: GOP Rep. Devin Nunes retains his seat in California's 22nd Congressional District 
  • CA-25: Rep. Mike Garcia faces a rematch against Christy Smith in California's 25th Congressional District
  • CA-39: Republican Young Kim projected to unseat incumbent Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros and win California's 39th congressional district
  • CA-45: First-term Democratic Rep. Katie Porter projected to keep her seat in California's 45th Congressional District
  • CA-48: Republican Michelle Steel defeats first-term Rep. Harley Rouda in California's 48th Congressional District
  • CA-50: Republican Darrell Issa defeats Democrat Ammar Campa Najjar to represent California's 50th Congressional District
  • CA-53: Sara Jacobs beats fellow Democrat Georgette Gómez to represent California's 53rd Congressional District in the House of Representatives


  • CO-03: Republican Lauren Boebert defeats Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush to represent Colorado's 3rd Congressional District 
  • CO-06: First-term Rep. Jason Crow beats Republican challenger Steve House to maintain control of Colorado's 6th Congressional District


  • FL-15: Republican Scott Franklin beats Democrat Alan Cohn to represent Florida's 15th Congressional District
  • Fl-16: GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan projected to retain his seat against Margaret Good in Florida's 16th Congressional District
  • FL-26: Republican Carlos Gimenez unseats freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida's 26th Congressional District
  • FL-27: Republican Maria Elvira Salazar unseats first-term Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala in Florida's 27th Congressional District


  • GA-06: Incumbent Rep. Lucy McBath retains control of Georgia's 6th Congressional District
  • GA-07: Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux beats Republican Rich McCormick to represent Georgia's 7th Congressional District


  • IL-06: First-term Rep. Sean Casten has defended his seat in Illinois' 6th Congressional District from Republican challenger Jeanne Ives.
  • IL-13: GOP Rep. Rodney Davis wins reelection in Illinois' 13th Congressional District after a second challenge from Betsy Londrigan 
  • IL-14: Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood defeats Jim Oberweis in Illinois' 14th Congressional District
  • IL-17: Rep. Cheri Bustos wins reelection against Republican Esther Joy King in Illinois' 17th District


  • IN-05: Republican Victoria Spartz beats Democrat Christina Hale in race for Indiana's 5th Congressional District


  • IA-01: Republican Ashley Hinson is projected to unseat Rep. Abby Finkenauer in Iowa's 1st Congressional District
  • IA-02: Democrat Rita Hart and Mariannette Miller-Meeks face off in the open race for Iowa's 2nd Congressional District
  • IA-03: Democratic incumbent Rep. Cindy Axne retains her seat in Iowa's 3rd Congressional District form a challenge by Republican David Young. 
  • IA-04: Republican Randy Feenstra beats Democrat J.D. Scholten to represent Iowa's 4th Congressional District 


  • KS-02: Republican Jake LaTurner beats Democrat Michelle De La Isla to represent Kansas' 2nd District
  • KS-03: First-term Rep. Sharice Davids beats Republican challenger Amanda Adkins to maintain control of Kansas' 3rd Congressional District


  • KY-06: GOP Rep. Andy Barr retains his seat in the House for a fifth term after facing a challenge from Josh Hicks in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District


  • ME-02: Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is projected to win reelection in Maine's 2nd Congressional District against Republican Dale Crafts


  • MI-03: Republican Peter Meijer is projected to defeat Democrat Hillary Scholten in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District
  • MI-06: Rep. Fred Upton defeats Democrat Jon Hoadley to win Michigan's 6th Congressional District
  • MI-08: Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is projected to retain her seat against Paul Junge in Michigan's 8th Congressional District
  • MI-11: First-term Rep. Haley Stevens wins reelection against Republican Eric Esshaki in Michigan's 11th Congressional District


  • MN-01: First-term Rep. Jim Hagedorn is projected to defeat Democrat Daniel Feehan in a rematch to represent Minnesota's 1st Congressional District
  • MN-02: First-term Democratic Rep. Angie Craig defeats Tyler Kistner in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District
  • MN-03: First-term Rep. Dean Phillips beats Republican Kendall Qualls to keep his seat in Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District
  • MN-07: Former Minnesota Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach defeated Democratic incumbent Rep. Collin Peterson in Minnesota's 7th Congressional District
  • MN-08: First-term Rep. Pete Stauber defended his seat against Democrat Quinn Nystrom in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District


  • MO-02: Republican Rep. Ann Wagner beats Democratic challenger Jill Schupp to win Missouri's 2nd Congressional District


  • MT-AL: Republican Matt Rosendale beats Democrat Kathleen Williams in Montana's At-Large Congressional District


  • NE-02: Republican incumbent Rep. Don Bacon beats Democrat Kara Eastman to represent Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District


  • NV-03: First-term Rep. Susie Lee defends her seat in Nevada's 3rd Congressional District from a challenge by Republican Daniel Rodimer 
  • NV-04: Rep. Steven Horsford defends his seat against Republican Jim Marchant in Nevada's 4th Congressional District

New Hampshire

  • NH-01: Democratic incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas defeated Republican Matt Mowers in New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District

New Jersey

  • NJ-02: Now-Republican incumbent Jeff Van Drew defeats Democrat Amy Kennedy to represent the state's 2nd Congressional District
  • NJ-03: Rep. Andy Kim defeats Republican challenger David Richter in New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District
  • NJ-05: Rep. Josh Gottheimer defends his House seat against Republican Frank Pallotta in New Jersey's 5th Congressional District
  • NJ-07: First-term Rep. Tom Malinowski looks to defend his seat against Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District
  • NJ-11: First-term Rep. Mikie Sherrill wins reelection in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District after a challenge from Republican Rosemary Becchi

New Mexico

  • NM-02: Republican Yvette Herrell unseated Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District

New York

  • NY-01: GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin faces off against Democrat Nancy Goroff in New York's 1st Congressional District
  • NY-02: Democrat Jackie Gordon and Republican Andrew Garbarino face off in New York's 2nd District
  • NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis defeats first-term Democrat Max Rose in New York's 11th Congressional District
  • NY-18: Republican Chele Farley looks to unseat Rep. Sean Maloney in New York's 18th Congressional District
  • NY-19: First-term Rep. Antonio Delgado defended his seat against Republican Kyle Van De Water in New York's 19th Congressional District
  • NY-22: Incumbent Democrat Anthony Brindisi and Republican Claudia Tenney are set for a rematch in New York's 22nd Congressional District
  • NY-24: GOP Rep. John Katko beats Democrat Dana Balter in their rematch for New York's 24th District

North Carolina

  • NC-02: Democrat Deborah Ross beats Republican Alan Swain to represent North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District
  • NC-06: Democrat Kathy Manning beats Republican Lee Haywood in North Carolina's 6th Congressional District
  • NC-08: GOP Rep. Richard Hudson staves off a challenge from Democrat Patricia Timmons-Goodson in North Carolina's 8th Congressional District
  • NC-11: Republican Madison Cawthorn beats Democrat Moe Davis in North Carolina's 11th Congressional District


  • OH-01: GOP Rep. Steve Chabot defeated Democrat Kate Schroder in Ohio's 1st Congressional District
  • OH-10: 4-term incumbent Rep. Mike Turner beats Democrat Desiree Tims in Ohio's 10th Congressional District.
  • OH-12: Republican incumbent Rep. Troy Balderson defends his seat against Democrat Alaina Shearer in Ohio's 12th Congressional District


  • OK-05: Democrat Kendra Horn loses reelection in Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District to Republican Stephanie Bice 


  • OR-04: 17-term incumbent Rep. Peter DeFazio retains his seat against Republican Alek Skarlatos in Oregon's 4th Congressional District


  • PA-01: Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is projected to defeat Democrat Christina Finello in Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District
  • PA-07: First-term Rep. Susan Wild staves off a challenge from Republican Lisa Scheller to win reelection in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District
  • PA-08: Democrat Matt Cartwright has defeated Jim Bognet in Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District
  • PA-10: Democrat Eugene DePasquale fails to unseat Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District
  • PA-16: Republican Rep. Mike Kelly holds onto his seat in Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District after a challenge from Democrat Kristy Gnibus
  • PA-17: Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb looks to hold onto his House seat against Republican Sean Parnell in Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District

South Carolina

  • SC-01: Republican Nancy Mace unseated Democratic incumbent Rep. Joe Cunningham in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District


  • TX-02: Freshman Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw holds his seat in Texas' 2nd Congressional District against a challenge from Democrat Sima Ladjevardian 
  • TX-03: First-term GOP Rep. Van Taylor defended his seat against Democrat Lulu Seikaly in Texas' 3rd Congressional District
  • TX-07: First-term Rep. Lizzie Fletcher retained her seat in Texas' 7th Congressional District
  • TX-10: Eight-term incumbent Rep. Michael McCaul beats Democrat Mike Siegel in Texas' 10th Congressional District
  • TX-21: First-term Rep. Chip Roy beats Wendy Davis in Texas' 21st Congressional District
  • TX-22: Republican Troy Nehls beats Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni to win Texas' 22nd Congressional District
  • TX-23: Republican Tony Gonzales defeats Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones to represent Texas' 23rd Congressional District
  • TX-24: Republican Beth Van Duyne defeats Democrat Candace Valenzuela in Texas' 24th Congressional District House race
  • TX-25: 4-term GOP incumbent Rep. Roger Williams beats Julie Oliver in Texas' 25th Congressional District
  • TX-31: 9-term incumbent Rep. John Carter fends off Democrat Donna Imam in Texas' 31st Congressional District


  • UT-04: First-term Rep. Ben McAdams and Burgess Owens face off in Utah's 4th Congressional District


  • VA-02: Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria is projected to defeat Scott Taylor in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District
  • VA-05: GOP Rep. Bob Good beats Democrat Cameron Webb in Virginia's 5th Congressional District
  • VA-07: Incumbent Democrat Abigail Spanberger wins reelection in Virginia's 7th Congressional District


  • WA-03: GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler has defeated Carolyn Long in Washington's 3rd Congressional District.
  • WA-08: First-term Rep. Kim Schrier defeats Republican Jesse Jensen to win reelection in Washington's 8th Congressional District


  • WI-03: 12-term incumbent Rep. Ron Kind is projected to defeat Republican Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District

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